A new poll of battleground state Republicans shows Ron DeSantis competitive with Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Primary.
The survey, conducted by John Bolton‘s Super PAC, concentrated on Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, four Senate battleground states. DeSantis led in two of the states.
DeSantis led Trump in neighboring Georgia, with 36% support compared to 29% for the former President. In Ohio, DeSantis’ lead was more narrow: 30% to 28%.
Trump led in North Carolina, with 37% support against 29% for DeSantis. In Pennsylvania, Trump had his strongest performance, with 40% support against 29% for DeSantis.
Among the Primary voters polled, Trump held a narrow lead across the four-state region, 33% to 31%. No other potential candidate had more than 7% support overall, or even breached double-digit support in any state, the latest indication 2024 is shaping up to be a Trump-DeSantis face-off.
The margin of error overall is +/- 2.8 percentage points, so there is plenty of room for interpretation with these results. Bolton-associated polling has also trended toward DeSantis, which is another potential caveat. Nevertheless, this four-state survey is the latest evidence of an evolving showdown.
Florida polling is starting to show DeSantis over Trump in certain contexts. A new survey from Naples-based Victory Insights shows DeSantis ahead 61% to 39%. A survey released last week by Blueprint Polling shows DeSantis with a 12-point lead over Trump.
Not all polling points to a DeSantis trend, however. Notably, Club for Growth polling on the state level has shown Trump well ahead of the Governor in most places.
The Bolton battleground state polling dropped in the immediate wake of a straw poll massively favorable to Trump at the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit.
The TPUSA straw poll showed Trump with 78% support against 20% for DeSantis, but if Trump were out of the field, most of that support gravitated to DeSantis, who drew 87% backing in a field excluding the former President.