Tracking The Tropics: Area to watch in the north-central Gulf increases

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We are now watching an area of disorganized storms out in the north-central Gulf of Mexico for the potential of development. At 8 A.M., the National Hurricane Center issued a 10% chance for development over the next 2 to 5 days.

Model data does currently lack showing a well-developed system being produced out of this as it is next to an area of higher shear. The Eastern Gulf of Mexico is currently experiencing higher shear values (red) vs. that in the western Gulf (blue).

Tropical developments are vertically stacked systems and do not perform or develop well in areas of high shear. Therefore, further development in the next couple of days does not look likely. The probability for this to develop and directly impact Southwest Florida would depend on the weakening of shear in the atmosphere.

We will continue to keep an eye on the atmospheric conditions over the Gulf in the coming days.  

Are you prepared for the season? Now’s a great time to get up to speed on your knowledge of the tropics. Check out our free online hurricane guide here.

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