Tracking the Tropics: Danielle could form in Atlantic this week

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The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team is monitoring four areas of interest in the Atlantic basin as we close in on the peak of hurricane season. 

The tropical wave with the highest odds of development is located in the central Atlantic, roughly two thousand miles from Florida. 

The National Hurricane Center gives this feature, dubbed Invest 91L, a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and an 80% chance to develop in the next five days. 

The disturbance is forecast to continue moving west-northwest toward the western Atlantic and northern Antilles over the next five days.

Some of our more reliable forecast models show the possibility for the disturbance to eventually recurve out to sea before reaching the U.S. mainland, but until an actual system develops, there’s still some degree of uncertainty on the long-term track. 

Elsewhere in the tropics, we’re also tracking three more disturbances, a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, a disturbance in the western Caribbean, and another weak tropical wave in the central Atlantic waters. 

All of these have a much lower chance of developing in the next five days and currently present no threat to Florida. 

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