Though we are only a few weeks away from the average peak of hurricane season, the only area of interest is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. The odds for development continue to drop, with formation chances at 10% in the next five days.
The biggest reason the tropical wave is struggling to organize is a layer of dry, dusty air surrounding the feature, helping to choke off supply of tropical moisture.
The weak area of low pressure will continue to move west at 10-15 mph. It’s very possible the system will eventually succumb to dry air and moderate wind shear. The latest model plots bring the plume of tropical moisture into the western Atlantic in about 5-7 days.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we’re monitoring a strong tropical wave about to emerge off the coast of Africa in the next couple of days. Once this feature makes it into the eastern Atlantic, gradual development is possible by the end of the week and into the weekend.
It’s been 51 days since our last tropical storm in the Atlantic! Late August and September are often busy times of year in the tropics, with the statistical peak of the season normally falling in early-to-mid September.
Are you prepared for hurricane season? Now’s the time of year to get ready should a storm threaten us in the future. Get caught up on your tropical weather knowledge here.