The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on the newly-formed Tropical Storm Earl, which as of 11 p.m. Friday was producing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with a forward movement to the west-northwest at 14 mph.
Current forecast projections show Earl moving west-northwest through the Labor Day weekend before turning it northeastward by early next week. Pending no unforeseen complications, this would prevent the system from having an impact on Florida, as a northeast turn would put it moving away from the eastern United States by early next week.
The official forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows the tropical storm north of Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then turning north before reaching the Bahamas.
Tropical forecast cones are constructed in part using the help of various forecast models. In the image below showing the potential center point of the system between multiple models you can see though there are some outliers, the bend to the northeast is what the consensus shows. This has been fairly consistently over the past week before the system became organized enough to get the tropical storm designation.
Earl was the second named storm to develop this month, hot on the heels of Hurricane Danielle that is spinning in the open Atlantic. Danielle poses no threat to the United States or the Canadian Maritimes, as into early next week is remains what’s often called a “fish storm”; that’s a hurricane that spends its lifespan at sea without making landfall.
We are approaching the peak of the season and although it has been a quiet one, it only takes one storm nearby for a quiet season to become a rough one. Be sure you are prepared by counting on the NBC 2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team. You can brush up on your tropical weather knowledge using our NBC2 online hurricane guide+ here!